Converting Future Precipitation Estimates from Low to High Temporal Resolutions: A Workflow for the Surface Water Modeler

Image credit: AGU

Abstract

Surface water models are an essential tool for estimating the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic hazards like flooding. Changes in urbanization are typically represented by the developer of the surface water model (e.g., via land cover characterizations and model parameterization), but the impact of climate change on precipitation must be accounted for within the precipitation time series input. Many regional climate models generate time series of future precipitation, but these outputs are provided in time steps too large for use in surface water models (24-hr, 6-hr, or, at best, 1-hr), leading to the smoothing and reduction of flashy peak flows. These models also present data less comparable to historical observations because of changes in precipitation pattern, making it challenging to parse and communicate the impacts of changes in precipitation to stakeholders.

Date
Dec 12, 2024 3:00 PM — 3:10 PM
Location
Washington D.C.
Austin K. Farnum
Austin K. Farnum
PhD Student
Carolyn B. Voter
Carolyn B. Voter
Assistant Professor